Madora Bay WA Property Investment
Mandurah · 6210 · Score: 56/100 · Hold
Madora Bay Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Madora Bay WA Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.5% gross yield on a $963,642 median.
THE MARKET
Madora Bay has compounded at 2.1%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $868,534 in 2021 is worth $963,642 today. Properties are sitting on market for 37 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,069,164 by 2031.
- Median house: $963,642 | Units: $678,341
- Gross yield: 3.5% | Net yield: 2.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 2.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 3,830 | Owner-occupier rate: 68% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.3% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $650/wk | Days on market: 37 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Lakelands Station station 1.8km away
BULL CASE
If Madora Bay maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.6%, median prices could reach $1,108,188 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Madora Bay pull back 10-15% from $963,642, with vacancy rising to 4.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Mandurah (WA): $746,319 median, 3.8% yield, 16.5% 1yr growth
- Balga (WA): $750,000 median, 5.0% yield, 14.1% 1yr growth
- Girrawheen (WA): $775,000 median, 4.4% yield, 16.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Madora Bay offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $867,278 – $1,060,006
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 2.1% + 10yr CAGR 3.0%
- +Above-average population growth (1.9%/yr)
- +Low rental vacancy (2.3%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (4973 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
542
2020
1,254
2021
873
2022
847
2023
1,457
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 6210
Decile 3 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
75,034
Education (IEO)
2/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
5/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Madora Bay WA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $650/wk median rent for Madora Bay. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.