Golden Bay WA Property Investment
Rockingham · 6174 · Score: 67/100 · Buy
Golden Bay Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Golden Bay WA Investment Brief
BUY — 4.1% gross yield on a $830,000 median.
THE MARKET
Golden Bay has compounded at 1.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $789,717 in 2021 is worth $830,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 37 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $872,338 by 2031.
- Median house: $830,000 | Units: $784,230
- Gross yield: 4.1% | Net yield: 2.6%
- 5yr price CAGR: 1.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 5,681 | Owner-occupier rate: 74% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $650/wk | Days on market: 37 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Lakelands station 5.3km away
BULL CASE
If Golden Bay maintains 8%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $954,500 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Golden Bay pull back 10-15% from $830,000, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Mandurah (WA): $746,319 median, 3.8% yield, 16.5% 1yr growth
- Balga (WA): $750,000 median, 5.0% yield, 14.1% 1yr growth
- Girrawheen (WA): $775,000 median, 4.4% yield, 16.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Golden Bay presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 4.1% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current recovery phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $747,000 – $913,000
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 1.0% + 10yr CAGR 3.1%
- +Strong population growth (8.5%/yr) driving demand
- +Low rental vacancy (2.2%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (5504 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
572
2020
1,182
2021
928
2022
1,073
2023
1,749
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 6174
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
5,681
Education (IEO)
4/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
7/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Golden Bay WA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $650/wk median rent for Golden Bay. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.