The Patch VIC Property Investment
Yarra Ranges · 3792 · Score: 64/100 · Hold
The Patch Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
The Patch VIC Investment Brief
HOLD — $1,045,477 (pending peer validation) median with 7.1%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
The Patch has compounded at 7.1%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,045,477 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 32 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $1,045,477 (pending peer validation) | Units: $0
- Gross yield: 2.1% | Net yield: 0.6%
- 5yr price CAGR: 7.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 3.7%/yr
- Population: 1,046 | Owner-occupier rate: 93% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.3% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $415/wk | Days on market: 32 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $649/night | Occupancy: 48%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$113,738/yr
- vs long-term rent: $21,580/yr (+427% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Angliss Hospital Expansion (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If The Patch maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.6%, median prices could reach $1,202,299 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in The Patch pull back 10-15% from $1,045,477, with vacancy rising to 4.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Bushfire risk: HIGH (planning_overlay) — confirm BAL rating and any bushfire overlay obligations for the property
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Hazelwood North (VIC): $1,027,334 median, 1.1% yield, 14.9% 1yr growth
- Tanjil South (VIC): $932,309 median, 1.2% yield, 7.5% 1yr growth
- Hampton Park (VIC): $754,527 median, 3.8% yield, 5.3% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
The Patch offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $940,929 – $1,150,025
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 7.1% + 10yr CAGR 7.8%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.3%) — constrained supply
- −Population decline (-0.4%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (3117 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
547
2020
711
2021
643
2022
414
2023
802
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3792
Decile 9 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
1,046
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on The Patch VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $415/wk median rent for The Patch. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.