Shaw QLD Property Investment

Shaw has compounded at 0.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $765,320 in 2021 is worth $784,645 today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $804,458 by 2031.

• Median house: $784,645 | Units: $605,254
• Gross yield: 4.1% | Net yield: 2.6%
• 5yr price CAGR: 0.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 760 | Owner-occupier rate: 66% | Affluence: Above Average

• Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals

• Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $620/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
• Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

• Median nightly rate: $544/night | Occupancy: 44%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$87,366/yr
• vs long-term rent: $32,240/yr (+171% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Standard suburban transport access

If Shaw maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $902,342 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Shaw pull back 10-15% from $784,645, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
• - Flood risk: MODERATE (qld_elevation_proxy) — part of the suburb sits near waterways or in a mapped flood-prone area

• Westwood (QLD): $747,318 median, 2.3% yield, 23.0% 1yr growth
• Atherton (QLD): $608,569 median, 4.6% yield, 12.4% 1yr growth
• Kingaroy (QLD): $591,711 median, 4.8% yield, 15.2% 1yr growth

Shaw offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.6%.

• Entry range: $706,180 – $863,110
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.