Kirwan QLD Property Investment

Kirwan has compounded at 0.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $677,740 in 2021 is worth $694,854 today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $712,400 by 2031.

• Median house: $694,854 | Units: $518,640
• Gross yield: 4.2% | Net yield: 2.7%
• 5yr price CAGR: 0.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 20,780 | Owner-occupier rate: 66% | Affluence: Above Average

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $560/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
• Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

• Median nightly rate: $399/night | Occupancy: 44%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$64,009/yr
• vs long-term rent: $29,120/yr (+120% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• Kirwan State High School Expansion (completed)
• Kirwan Drive Upgrade (completed)
• Transport: Townsville station 8.2km away

If Kirwan maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $799,082 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Kirwan pull back 10-15% from $694,854, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
• - Flood risk: MODERATE (qld_elevation_proxy) — part of the suburb sits near waterways or in a mapped flood-prone area

• Westwood (QLD): $747,318 median, 2.3% yield, 23.0% 1yr growth
• Yarraman (QLD): $515,179 median, 3.7% yield, 21.1% 1yr growth
• Crawford (QLD): $501,403 median, 2.7% yield, 15.8% 1yr growth

Kirwan offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.7%.

• Entry range: $625,369 – $764,339
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.