Murrumba Downs QLD Property Investment
Moreton Bay · 4503 · Score: 67/100 · Buy
Murrumba Downs Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Murrumba Downs QLD Investment Brief
BUY — 3.1% gross yield on a $1,214,999 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
Murrumba Downs has compounded at 3.2%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,214,999 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 22 days (sellers have the leverage).
- Median house: $1,214,999 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $817,036
- Gross yield: 3.1% | Net yield: 1.6%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 10,795 | Owner-occupier rate: 55% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.2% (improving) | Rental demand: Very High
- Median weekly rent: $730/wk | Days on market: 22 (improving)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $382/night | Occupancy: 44%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$61,389/yr
- vs long-term rent: $37,960/yr (+62% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games Infrastructure (Announced)
- Transport: Kallangur station 1.5km away
BULL CASE
If Murrumba Downs maintains 4%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $1,397,249 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Murrumba Downs pull back 10-15% from $1,214,999, with vacancy rising to 2.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Springfield Lakes (QLD): $1,070,949 median, 3.2% yield, 13.0% 1yr growth
- North Lakes (QLD): $1,179,423 median, 3.0% yield, 12.4% 1yr growth
- Redbank Plains (QLD): $911,047 median, 3.4% yield, 16.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Murrumba Downs presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.1% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current stable phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,093,499 – $1,336,499
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.2% + 10yr CAGR 3.1%
- +Strong population growth (3.8%/yr) driving demand
- +Very tight rental market (vacancy 1.2%) — upward price pressure
- +Active market (22 days avg)
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (21414 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
4,057
2020
5,365
2021
4,175
2022
3,011
2023
4,806
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 4503
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
52,483
Education (IEO)
5/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
5/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Murrumba Downs QLD data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $730/wk median rent for Murrumba Downs. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.