Narellan Vale NSW Property Investment
Campbelltown (NSW) · 2567 · Score: 64/100 · Hold
Narellan Vale NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.0% gross yield on a $925,500–$1,216,658 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) median.
THE MARKET
Median house price in Narellan Vale sits at $925,500–$1,216,658 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) with 43 days on market and a 2.2% vacancy rate. This is a balanced market right now.
- Median house: $925,500–$1,216,658 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) | Units: $800,535
- Gross yield: 3.0% | Net yield: 1.5%
- 5yr price CAGR: -3.8%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 6,931 | Owner-occupier rate: 78% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $700/wk | Days on market: 43 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Narellan Vale maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,395,555 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Narellan Vale pull back 10-15% from $1,213,526, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Blackett (NSW): $920,447 median, 2.9% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
- Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Narellan Vale offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,092,173 – $1,334,879
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
medium confidenceBasis: 3yr growth 7.5% (discounted)
- +Low rental vacancy (2.2%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (6809 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,678
2020
1,679
2021
1,217
2022
1,030
2023
1,205
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2567
Decile 8 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
40,951
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Narellan Vale NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $700/wk median rent for Narellan Vale. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.