Kemps Creek NSW Property Investment
Fairfield · 2178 · Score: 60/100 · Hold
Kemps Creek Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Kemps Creek NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 1.3% gross yield on a $2,815,211 (pending peer validation) median.
THE MARKET
Kemps Creek has compounded at 6.2%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $2,815,211 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 92 days (buyers have negotiating room).
- Median house: $2,815,211 (pending peer validation) | Units: $1,193,990
- Gross yield: 1.3% | Net yield: -0.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: 6.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 4.7%/yr
- Population: 2,121 | Owner-occupier rate: 74% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.7% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $720/wk | Days on market: 92 (worsening)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $434/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$63,419/yr
- vs long-term rent: $37,440/yr (+69% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Western Sydney International (Nancy-Bird Walton) Airport (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro - Western Sydney Airport Line (Under Construction)
- Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 (Under Procurement)
- Parramatta Light Rail Stage 1 (Operational)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Kemps Creek maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.2%, median prices could reach $3,237,493 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Kemps Creek pull back 10-15% from $2,815,211, with vacancy rising to 3.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Pinkett (NSW): $2,650,000 median, 0.8% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Lovedale (NSW): $2,022,982 median, 1.4% yield, 14.6% 1yr growth
- New Mexico (NSW): $3,120,000 median, 0.7% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Kemps Creek offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $2,533,690 – $3,096,732
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 6.2% + 10yr CAGR 6.4%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.7%) — constrained supply
- −Population decline (-0.3%/yr) — demand headwind
- −Slow market (92 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (5081 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-05
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
860
2020
966
2021
1,130
2022
1,257
2023
868
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2178
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
4,170
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
9/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Kemps Creek NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $720/wk median rent for Kemps Creek. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.