Balmoral NSW Property Investment

Lake Macquarie · 2088 · Score: 71/100 · Buy

Median House Price
$2.47M
Rental Yield
4.0%
Vacancy Rate
1.6%
Median Weekly Rent
$1900/wk
Median Unit Price
$1.23M
Population
28,329
Days on Market
42 days
Annual Growth
-3.6%
AI Investment Analysis

Balmoral NSW Investment Brief

BUY$2,469,095 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median with 7.5%/yr growth over 5 years.

THE MARKET

Balmoral has compounded at 7.5%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $2,469,095 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions).

  • Median house: $2,469,095 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $1,231,896
  • Gross yield: 4.0% | Net yield: 2.5%
  • 5yr price CAGR: 7.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
  • Population: 28,329 | Owner-occupier rate: 64% | Affluence: Very High
  • Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

  • Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
  • Median weekly rent: $1,900/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
  • Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

  • NorthConnex Tunnel (Operational)
  • Sydney Metro West (Under Construction)
  • Parramatta Light Rail Stage 1 (Operational)
  • Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 (Under Procurement)
  • Transport: Hornsby station 5.3km away

BULL CASE

If Balmoral maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $2,839,459 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Balmoral pull back 10-15% from $2,469,095, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

  • Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity

COMPARABLE MARKETS

  • Campsie (NSW): $1,865,686 median, 2.3% yield, 1.5% 1yr growth
  • Pinkett (NSW): $2,650,000 median, 0.8% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
  • Belfield (NSW): $1,923,552 median, 2.7% yield, -9.1% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Balmoral presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 4.0% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current above_trend phase of the market cycle.

  • Entry range: $2,222,186$2,716,004
  • Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
  • Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Gentrification Index

Pre-gentrification3.5/10
High SEIFA decile — already upgraded or established affluent area
Above-average capital growth (7.5% CAGR)
Outer suburban location (25.7km to CBD) — slower gentrification cycle
Active development pipeline (6746 approvals) — supply attracting new residents

Growth Forecast

low confidence
1yr Forecast
5.8%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
5.3%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
4.6%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 7.5% + 10yr CAGR 6.3%

Growth drivers
  • +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
Headwinds
  • Population decline (-0.1%/yr) — demand headwind
  • High supply pipeline (6746 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

8 green5 yellow2 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
1.6 high impact
Days on Market
42 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
1900 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
7.51 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
6.3 high impact
1yr Price Growth
-3.6 medium impact
Population Growth
-0.1 high impact
Median Household Income
2892 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
3.6 medium impact
Public Transport Score
No data medium impact
School Zone Quality
8.5 medium impact
Distance to CBD
25.71 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
10 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
64.1 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
4 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
2.5 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

1,253

2020

1,328

2021

1,498

2022

1,359

2023

1,308

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2088

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage

Population

28,329

Education (IEO)

10/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

9/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Balmoral NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $1900/wk median rent for Balmoral. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Dural PS
PrimaryGovernment
8.1/10
Galston HS
SecondaryGovernment
6.9/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.