Warnbro WA Property Investment
Rockingham · 6169 · Score: 55/100 · Hold
Warnbro Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Warnbro WA Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.6% gross yield on a $898,428 median.
THE MARKET
Warnbro has compounded at 1.4%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $838,095 in 2021 is worth $898,428 today. Properties are sitting on market for 36 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $963,104 by 2031.
- Median house: $898,428 | Units: $835,801
- Gross yield: 3.6% | Net yield: 2.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 1.4%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 10,828 | Owner-occupier rate: 73% | Affluence: Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.1% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $620/wk | Days on market: 36 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Warnbro station 1.4km away
BULL CASE
If Warnbro maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,033,192 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Warnbro pull back 10-15% from $898,428, with vacancy rising to 3.8% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Mandurah (WA): $746,319 median, 3.8% yield, 16.5% 1yr growth
- Balga (WA): $750,000 median, 5.0% yield, 14.1% 1yr growth
- Girrawheen (WA): $775,000 median, 4.4% yield, 16.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Warnbro offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.1%.
- Entry range: $808,585 – $988,271
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 1.4% + 10yr CAGR 3.4%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.1%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (5504 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
572
2020
1,182
2021
928
2022
1,073
2023
1,749
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 6169
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
35,317
Education (IEO)
3/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
5/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Warnbro WA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $620/wk median rent for Warnbro. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.