Salmon Gums WA Property Investment
Esperance · 6445 · Score: 43/100 · Caution
Salmon Gums Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Salmon Gums WA Investment Brief
CAUTION — $310,000 (pending peer validation) median with 18.1%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Salmon Gums has compounded at 18.1%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $310,000 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $310,000 (pending peer validation) | Units: $0
- Gross yield: 1.7% | Net yield: 0.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: 18.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 146 | Owner-occupier rate: 68% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $104/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $217/night | Occupancy: 35%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$27,509/yr
- vs long-term rent: $5,408/yr (+409% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Daniell station 44.9km away
BULL CASE
If Salmon Gums maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $356,500 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Salmon Gums pull back 10-15% from $310,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Pannawonica (WA): $222,725 median, 0.7% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Frankland River (WA): $342,634 median, 2.4% yield, 9.3% 1yr growth
- Wagin (WA): $379,354 median, 4.6% yield, -3.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Salmon Gums carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A stable market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $279,000 – $341,000
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 18.1% + 10yr CAGR 16.6%
- −Population decline (-4.8%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (248 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
35
2020
79
2021
55
2022
35
2023
44
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 6445
Decile 8 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
159
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
8/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Salmon Gums WA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $104/wk median rent for Salmon Gums. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.