Ferndale WA Property Investment
Canning · 6148 · Score: 72/100 · Buy
Ferndale Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Ferndale WA Investment Brief
BUY — 3.8% gross yield on a $1,017,093 median.
THE MARKET
Ferndale has compounded at 3.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $868,885 in 2021 is worth $1,017,093 today. Properties are sitting on market for 18 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,190,582 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,017,093 | Units: $703,261
- Gross yield: 3.8% | Net yield: 2.3%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 4,457 | Owner-occupier rate: 74% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 0.9% (improving) | Rental demand: Very High
- Median weekly rent: $750/wk | Days on market: 18 (improving)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- METRONET (Perth Rail Expansion) (Under Construction)
- Perth City Deal (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Canning Junction station 1.2km away
BULL CASE
If Ferndale maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $1,169,657 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Ferndale pull back 10-15% from $1,017,093, with vacancy rising to 1.6% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Mandurah (WA): $746,319 median, 3.8% yield, 16.5% 1yr growth
- Balga (WA): $750,000 median, 5.0% yield, 14.1% 1yr growth
- Girrawheen (WA): $775,000 median, 4.4% yield, 16.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Ferndale presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.8% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $915,384 – $1,118,802
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.2% + 10yr CAGR 4.6%
- +Very tight rental market (vacancy 0.9%) — upward price pressure
- +Fast sales (18 days avg) — strong buyer demand
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (2881 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
639
2020
857
2021
600
2022
284
2023
501
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 6148
Decile 8 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
18,974
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
8/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Ferndale WA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $750/wk median rent for Ferndale. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.