Carnarvon WA Property Investment

CAUTION — 5.1% gross yield on a $440,000 median.

Carnarvon has compounded at 0.1%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $437,807 in 2021 is worth $440,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $442,204 by 2031.

• Median house: $440,000 | Units: $288,301
• Gross yield: 5.1% | Net yield: 3.6%
• 5yr price CAGR: 0.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 281 | Owner-occupier rate: 52% | Affluence: Below Average

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $435/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
• Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

• Median nightly rate: $203/night | Occupancy: 33%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$24,444/yr
• vs long-term rent: $22,620/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Standard suburban transport access

If Carnarvon maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $506,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Carnarvon pull back 10-15% from $440,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

• Esperance (WA): $558,387 median, 4.5% yield, 22.0% 1yr growth
• Halls Creek (WA): $550,000 median, 0.8% yield, 20.9% 1yr growth
• Badgingarra (WA): $450,000 median, 2.3% yield, 14.0% 1yr growth

Carnarvon carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A recovery market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.

• Entry range: $396,000 – $484,000
• Minimum gross yield to target: 5.4%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.