Yarram VIC Property Investment

CAUTION — 2.8% gross yield on a $445,000 (pending peer validation) median.

Yarram has compounded at 5.4%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $445,000 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions).

• Median house: $445,000 (pending peer validation) | Units: $0
• Gross yield: 2.8% | Net yield: 1.3%
• 5yr price CAGR: 5.4%/yr | 3yr forecast: 0.3%/yr
• Population: 2,136 | Owner-occupier rate: 78% | Affluence: Below Average

• Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages

• Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $236/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
• Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

• Median nightly rate: $492/night | Occupancy: 48%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$86,188/yr
• vs long-term rent: $12,272/yr (+602% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Standard suburban transport access

If Yarram maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $511,750 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Yarram pull back 10-15% from $445,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

• Morwell (VIC): $370,000 median, 5.9% yield, 15.2% 1yr growth
• Newborough (VIC): $500,000 median, 4.8% yield, 7.9% 1yr growth
• Moe (VIC): $413,500 median, 5.2% yield, 11.5% 1yr growth

Yarram carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A stable market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.

• Entry range: $400,500 – $489,500
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.