Winchelsea VIC Property Investment
Colac Otway · 3241 · Score: 61/100 · Hold
Winchelsea Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Winchelsea VIC Investment Brief
HOLD — $634,000 (pending peer validation) median with 7.3%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Winchelsea has compounded at 7.3%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $634,000 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 41 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $634,000 (pending peer validation) | Units: $0
- Gross yield: 2.4% | Net yield: 0.9%
- 5yr price CAGR: 7.3%/yr | 3yr forecast: 1.5%/yr
- Population: 2,456 | Owner-occupier rate: 78% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.7% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $290/wk | Days on market: 41 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Winchelsea maintains 4%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.9%, median prices could reach $729,100 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Winchelsea pull back 10-15% from $634,000, with vacancy rising to 4.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- St Albans (VIC): $731,405 median, 3.5% yield, 12.4% 1yr growth
- Deer Park (VIC): $714,583 median, 3.6% yield, 7.1% 1yr growth
- Sunshine North (VIC): $812,442 median, 3.2% yield, 2.8% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Winchelsea offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $570,600 – $697,400
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 7.3% + 10yr CAGR 7.2%
- +Strong population growth (3.7%/yr) driving demand
- −High supply pipeline (401 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
128
2022
162
2023
111
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3241
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
3,072
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
7/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Winchelsea VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $290/wk median rent for Winchelsea. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.