Underbool VIC Property Investment
Mildura · 3509 · Score: 43/100 · Caution
Underbool Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Underbool VIC Investment Brief
CAUTION — 1.2% gross yield on a $672,000 (pending peer validation) median.
THE MARKET
Median house price in Underbool sits at $672,000 (pending peer validation) with 45 days on market and a 3.0% vacancy rate. This is a tenant-favourable market right now.
- Median house: $672,000 (pending peer validation) | Units: $0
- Gross yield: 1.2% | Net yield: -0.3%
- 5yr price CAGR: -6.9%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 215 | Owner-occupier rate: 79% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $150/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $647/night | Occupancy: 48%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$113,354/yr
- vs long-term rent: $7,800/yr (+1353% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Underbool maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $772,800 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Underbool pull back 10-15% from $672,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Sebastopol (VIC): $475,000 median, 4.5% yield, 14.0% 1yr growth
- Ardmona (VIC): $672,000 median, 1.9% yield, 7.5% 1yr growth
- Norlane (VIC): $510,000 median, 4.2% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Underbool carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A recovery market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $604,800 – $739,200
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: National long-run average (no local data)
- −Population decline (-0.4%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (1477 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
248
2020
411
2021
301
2022
255
2023
262
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3509
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
228
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
6/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Underbool VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $150/wk median rent for Underbool. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Underbool
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.