Toorak VIC Property Investment
Stonnington · 3142 · Score: 70/100 · Buy
Toorak Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Toorak VIC Investment Brief
BUY — $3,800,000 median with 8.1%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Toorak has compounded at 8.1%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $2,574,276 in 2021 is worth $3,800,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 35 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $5,609,344 by 2031.
- Median house: $3,800,000 | Units: $2,630,000
- Gross yield: 2.3% | Net yield: 0.8%
- 5yr price CAGR: 8.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 1.9%/yr
- Population: 12,817 | Owner-occupier rate: 65% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.8% (stable) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $1,650/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $509/night | Occupancy: 48%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$89,144/yr
- vs long-term rent: $85,800/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Metro Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- North East Link (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Suburban Rail Loop East (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- West Gate Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Transport: Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Toorak maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.3%, median prices could reach $4,370,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Toorak pull back 10-15% from $3,800,000, with vacancy rising to 3.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Brighton (VIC): $3,200,000 median, 2.4% yield, -4.1% 1yr growth
- Canterbury (VIC): $3,200,000 median, 2.0% yield, 40.1% 1yr growth
- Malvern (VIC): $3,000,000 median, 1.9% yield, -13.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Toorak presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.3% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current boom phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $3,420,000 – $4,180,000
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 8.1% + 10yr CAGR 5.9%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.8%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −Population decline (-0.1%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (4850 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
530
2020
717
2021
1,280
2022
1,019
2023
1,304
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3142
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
12,817
Education (IEO)
10/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
7/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Toorak VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $1650/wk median rent for Toorak. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.