Pearcedale VIC Property Investment
Casey · 3912 · Score: 60/100 · Hold
Pearcedale Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Pearcedale VIC Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.5% gross yield on a $899,000 median.
THE MARKET
Pearcedale has compounded at 5.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $684,605 in 2021 is worth $899,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 33 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,180,536 by 2031.
- Median house: $899,000 | Units: $743,800
- Gross yield: 3.5% | Net yield: 2.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 5.6%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 3,867 | Owner-occupier rate: 82% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.4% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $610/wk | Days on market: 33 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $463/night | Occupancy: 48%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$81,051/yr
- vs long-term rent: $31,720/yr (+156% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Pearcedale maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.7%, median prices could reach $1,033,850 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Pearcedale pull back 10-15% from $899,000, with vacancy rising to 4.3% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Hazelwood North (VIC): $1,027,334 median, 1.1% yield, 14.9% 1yr growth
- Ardmona (VIC): $672,000 median, 1.9% yield, 7.5% 1yr growth
- Undera (VIC): $672,000 median, 1.9% yield, 7.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Pearcedale offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $809,100 – $988,900
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 5.6% + 10yr CAGR 6.0%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.4%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (21547 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
3,683
2020
4,692
2021
4,788
2022
4,712
2023
3,672
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3912
Decile 8 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
15,633
Education (IEO)
5/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
9/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Pearcedale VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $610/wk median rent for Pearcedale. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Pearcedale
Get instant STR rules, granny flat feasibility, rental yield, and full investment strategy comparison for any address in Pearcedale.
Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.