Moe VIC Property Investment
Wellington · 3825 · Score: 51/100 · Hold
Moe Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Moe VIC Investment Brief
HOLD — 5.2% gross yield on a $413,500 median.
THE MARKET
Moe has compounded at 3.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $353,246 in 2021 is worth $413,500 today. Properties are sitting on market for 44 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $484,032 by 2031.
- Median house: $413,500 | Units: $352,500
- Gross yield: 5.2% | Net yield: 3.7%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 9,375 | Owner-occupier rate: 69% | Affluence: Low
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.9% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $410/wk | Days on market: 44 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $463/night | Occupancy: 48%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$81,151/yr
- vs long-term rent: $21,320/yr (+281% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Moe Railway Station Precinct Upgrade (completed)
- Moe & District Hospital Emergency Department Redevelopment (completed)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Moe maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.0%, median prices could reach $475,525 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Moe pull back 10-15% from $413,500, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Nyah West (VIC): $291,922 median, 4.4% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Morwell (VIC): $370,000 median, 5.9% yield, 15.2% 1yr growth
- Newborough (VIC): $500,000 median, 4.8% yield, 7.9% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Moe offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 5.7%.
- Entry range: $372,150 – $454,850
- Minimum gross yield to target: 5.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.2% + 10yr CAGR 4.6%
- −High supply pipeline (1400 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
230
2020
399
2021
322
2022
302
2023
147
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3825
Decile 1 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
21,078
Education (IEO)
1/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
1/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Moe VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $410/wk median rent for Moe. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.