Merino VIC Property Investment
Glenelg · 3310 · Score: 43/100 · Caution
Merino Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Merino VIC Investment Brief
CAUTION — $672,000 (pending peer validation) median with 10.3%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Merino has compounded at 10.3%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $672,000 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $672,000 (pending peer validation) | Units: $0
- Gross yield: 0.8% | Net yield: -0.7%
- 5yr price CAGR: 10.3%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 249 | Owner-occupier rate: 92% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $100/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Merino maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $772,800 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Merino pull back 10-15% from $672,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- St Albans (VIC): $731,405 median, 3.5% yield, 12.4% 1yr growth
- Noble Park (VIC): $825,401 median, 3.5% yield, 6.5% 1yr growth
- Deer Park (VIC): $714,583 median, 3.6% yield, 7.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Merino carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A cooling market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $604,800 – $739,200
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 10.3% + 10yr CAGR 12.2%
- −Population decline (-1.0%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (370 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
55
2020
119
2021
69
2022
68
2023
59
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3310
Decile 2 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
263
Education (IEO)
2/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Merino VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $100/wk median rent for Merino. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Merino
Get instant STR rules, granny flat feasibility, rental yield, and full investment strategy comparison for any address in Merino.
Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.