Lara VIC Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $718,000 - Median unit price: $611,000 - 1‑yr price growth: +1.8% - 5‑yr CAGR: +3.8% per year - 3‑yr growth forecast: +13.5%

*Signal:* Price growth is modest this year (1.8%) but the five‑year compound rate (3.8%) and the 13.5% forecast over the next three years indicate a market that is still appreciating. With no days‑on‑market data, we cannot gauge seller urgency, but the upward trend favours buyers who can lock in today’s median prices before the forecasted appreciation materialises.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $580 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.2% - Vacancy rate: N/A - Demand rating: N/A

*What it means:* A 4.2% gross yield sits comfortably above the national residential average (≈3.5%). Assuming vacancy remains low, the rental market offers a solid cash‑flow base for investors.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: N/A - STR occupancy: N/A - Estimated annual STR revenue: N/A

*Conclusion:* With no STR data supplied, we cannot quantify short‑term rental performance. Until local STR metrics become available, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the safer, data‑backed choice.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers All infrastructure, transport and employment data are not provided. The positive price‑growth outlook suggests underlying demand drivers (e.g., regional growth, affordability relative to nearby centres), but specific projects cannot be cited without further information.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year forecast of +13.5% materialises:

• House median value: $718,000 × 1.135 ≈ $815,000
• Unit median value: $611,000 × 1.135 ≈ $693,000

Assuming rents keep pace with price growth, the gross yield would stay around 4.2%, delivering both capital appreciation and stable cash flow.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate is unknown (N/A); a rise above 5% could erode the 4.2% yield. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | Higher rates increase borrowing costs; a 1% rate rise could cut net cash flow by roughly 0.5% of purchase price. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings; a sudden influx of units could pressure rents and yields. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data supplied; reliance on a dominant local employer would be a risk if present. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry price range: $611,000 – $718,000 (units at the low end, houses at the high end). - Minimum yield target: ≥ 4.2% gross (the current suburb average). - Watch signals: 1. Release of any vacancy‑rate data for Lara. 2. Confirmation of the 13.5% three‑year growth forecast (e.g., council planning releases). 3. Changes in the Reserve Bank’s cash‑rate that could affect borrowing costs. - Recommended strategy: Acquire a median‑priced house or unit now to lock in the 4.2% yield and benefit from the projected 13.5% capital gain over three years. Conduct due‑diligence on upcoming infrastructure and employment projects before finalising the purchase. If STR data later emerges and shows strong nightly rates and occupancy, reassess the asset for a mixed‑use (LTR + STR) approach.