Keilor Downs VIC Property Investment
Brimbank · 3038 · Score: 63/100 · Hold
Keilor Downs VIC Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.4% gross yield on a $857,384 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
Keilor Downs has compounded at 5.1%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $857,384 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 32 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $857,384 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $658,417
- Gross yield: 3.4% | Net yield: 1.9%
- 5yr price CAGR: 5.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 9,857 | Owner-occupier rate: 84% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $560/wk | Days on market: 32 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Melbourne Airport Rail (SRL Airport) (Announced)
- West Gate Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Keilor Downs maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $985,992 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Keilor Downs pull back 10-15% from $857,384, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- St Albans (VIC): $731,405 median, 3.5% yield, 12.4% 1yr growth
- Noble Park (VIC): $825,401 median, 3.5% yield, 6.5% 1yr growth
- Springvale (VIC): $966,000 median, 3.2% yield, 9.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Keilor Downs offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $771,646 – $943,122
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 5.1% + 10yr CAGR 5.8%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.2%) — constrained supply
- −Population decline (-0.4%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (3236 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
735
2020
605
2021
808
2022
456
2023
632
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3038
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
26,703
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
8/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Keilor Downs VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $560/wk median rent for Keilor Downs. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.