Essendon VIC Property Investment

Essendon has compounded at 5.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,474,602 in 2021 is worth $1,900,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 32 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,448,118 by 2031.

• Median house: $1,900,000 | Units: $542,500
• Gross yield: 2.2% | Net yield: 0.7%
• 5yr price CAGR: 5.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 21,240 | Owner-occupier rate: 64% | Affluence: Very High

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
• Median weekly rent: $795/wk | Days on market: 32 (stable)
• Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

• Median nightly rate: $416/night | Occupancy: 48%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$72,938/yr
• vs long-term rent: $41,340/yr (+76% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• West Gate Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
• Metro Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
• Melbourne Airport Rail (SRL Airport) (Announced)
• North East Link (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
• Transport: Well-connected inner-city location

If Essendon maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $2,185,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Essendon pull back 10-15% from $1,900,000, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

• Carlton (VIC): $1,400,000 median, 3.1% yield, 8.7% 1yr growth
• Richmond (VIC): $1,550,000 median, 2.9% yield, -0.6% 1yr growth
• Fitzroy (VIC): $2,300,000 median, 2.2% yield, 7.9% 1yr growth

Essendon presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.2% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current stable phase of the market cycle.

• Entry range: $1,710,000 – $2,090,000
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.