Elsternwick VIC Property Investment
Port Phillip · 3185 · Score: 69/100 · Buy
Elsternwick Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Elsternwick VIC Investment Brief
BUY — 2.5% gross yield on a $1,900,000 median.
THE MARKET
Elsternwick has compounded at 5.4%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,460,665 in 2021 is worth $1,900,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 32 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,471,477 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,900,000 | Units: $1,280,000
- Gross yield: 2.5% | Net yield: 1.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 5.4%/yr | 3yr forecast: -3.7%/yr
- Population: 10,887 | Owner-occupier rate: 57% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.2% (worsening) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $920/wk | Days on market: 32 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $455/night | Occupancy: 48%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$79,760/yr
- vs long-term rent: $47,840/yr (+67% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Suburban Rail Loop East (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Metro Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- West Gate Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- North East Link (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Transport: Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Elsternwick maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $2,185,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Elsternwick pull back 10-15% from $1,900,000, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Negative price growth suggests a softening market
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Carlton (VIC): $1,400,000 median, 3.1% yield, 8.7% 1yr growth
- Richmond (VIC): $1,550,000 median, 2.9% yield, -0.6% 1yr growth
- Fitzroy (VIC): $2,300,000 median, 2.2% yield, 7.9% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Elsternwick presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.5% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current stable phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,710,000 – $2,090,000
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 5.4% + 10yr CAGR 5.4%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.2%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (6392 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,170
2020
1,198
2021
853
2022
1,151
2023
2,020
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3185
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
13,433
Education (IEO)
10/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
6/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Elsternwick VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $920/wk median rent for Elsternwick. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.