Chum Creek VIC Property Investment

Chum Creek has compounded at 6.0%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,012,771 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 37 days (roughly balanced conditions).

• Median house: $1,012,771 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $934,887
• Gross yield: 1.8% | Net yield: 0.3%
• 5yr price CAGR: 6.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 7.3%/yr
• Population: 981 | Owner-occupier rate: 83% | Affluence: Above Average

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
• Median weekly rent: $350/wk | Days on market: 37 (stable)
• Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

• Median nightly rate: $585/night | Occupancy: 48%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$102,492/yr
• vs long-term rent: $18,200/yr (+463% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Standard suburban transport access

If Chum Creek maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,164,687 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Chum Creek pull back 10-15% from $1,012,771, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Bushfire risk: HIGH (planning_overlay) — confirm BAL rating and any bushfire overlay obligations for the property
• - Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

• Hazelwood North (VIC): $1,027,334 median, 1.1% yield, 14.9% 1yr growth
• Tanjil South (VIC): $932,309 median, 1.2% yield, 7.5% 1yr growth
• Hampton Park (VIC): $754,527 median, 3.8% yield, 5.3% 1yr growth

Chum Creek offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.

• Entry range: $911,494 – $1,114,048
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.