Chirnside Park VIC Property Investment
Yarra Ranges · 3116 · Score: 72/100 · Buy
Chirnside Park VIC Investment Brief
BUY — 3.6% gross yield on a $1,015,963 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
Chirnside Park has compounded at 6.9%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,015,963 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 32 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $1,015,963 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $766,801
- Gross yield: 3.6% | Net yield: 2.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 6.9%/yr | 3yr forecast: 10.0%/yr
- Population: 11,779 | Owner-occupier rate: 83% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $700/wk | Days on market: 32 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Angliss Hospital Expansion (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Chirnside Park maintains 4%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,168,357 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Chirnside Park pull back 10-15% from $1,015,963, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- St Albans (VIC): $731,405 median, 3.5% yield, 12.4% 1yr growth
- Noble Park (VIC): $825,401 median, 3.5% yield, 6.5% 1yr growth
- Springvale (VIC): $966,000 median, 3.2% yield, 9.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Chirnside Park presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.6% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current stable phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $914,367 – $1,117,559
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 6.9% + 10yr CAGR 6.5%
- +Strong population growth (3.6%/yr) driving demand
- +Low rental vacancy (2.2%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (3117 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
547
2020
711
2021
643
2022
414
2023
802
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3116
Decile 9 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
11,779
Education (IEO)
7/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
9/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Chirnside Park VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $700/wk median rent for Chirnside Park. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.