Carlton VIC Property Investment
Melbourne · 3053 · Score: 52/100 · Hold
Carlton Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Carlton VIC Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.1% gross yield on a $1,400,000 median.
THE MARKET
Carlton has compounded at 3.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,207,652 in 2021 is worth $1,400,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 28 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,622,984 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,400,000 | Units: $203,000
- Gross yield: 3.1% | Net yield: 1.6%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: -4.3%/yr
- Population: 16,055 | Owner-occupier rate: 23% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.5% (worsening) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $843/wk | Days on market: 28 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $506/night | Occupancy: 48%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$88,739/yr
- vs long-term rent: $43,836/yr (+102% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Metro Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- West Gate Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- North East Link (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Suburban Rail Loop East (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Transport: Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Carlton maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.8%, median prices could reach $1,610,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Carlton pull back 10-15% from $1,400,000, with vacancy rising to 4.5% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Negative price growth suggests a softening market
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Bangholme (VIC): $992,000 median, 1.7% yield, 5.8% 1yr growth
- Flemington (VIC): $1,200,000 median, 2.8% yield, 2.3% 1yr growth
- Bellfield (VIC): $982,500 median, 3.2% yield, 1.3% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Carlton offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,260,000 – $1,540,000
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.0% + 10yr CAGR 4.1%
- +Active market (28 days avg)
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −Population decline (-2.9%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (14852 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
4,831
2020
913
2021
2,460
2022
2,745
2023
3,903
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3053
Decile 3 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
16,034
Education (IEO)
10/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
1/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Carlton VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $843/wk median rent for Carlton. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.