Upper Sturt SA Property Investment
Mitcham · 5156 · Score: 70/100 · Buy
Upper Sturt Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Upper Sturt SA Investment Brief
BUY — 1.3% gross yield on a $1,357,000 (pending peer validation) median.
THE MARKET
Upper Sturt has compounded at 4.0%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,357,000 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 20 days (sellers have the leverage).
- Median house: $1,357,000 (pending peer validation) | Units: $429,473
- Gross yield: 1.3% | Net yield: -0.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: 4.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 1,005 | Owner-occupier rate: 90% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 0.8% (improving) | Rental demand: Very High
- Median weekly rent: $345/wk | Days on market: 20 (improving)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $599/night | Occupancy: 42%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$91,827/yr
- vs long-term rent: $17,940/yr (+412% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- North South Corridor (South Australia) (Under Construction)
- Adelaide Metro Train Services Franchise (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Belair station 5.2km away
BULL CASE
If Upper Sturt maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $1,560,550 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Upper Sturt pull back 10-15% from $1,357,000, with vacancy rising to 1.4% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Bushfire risk: HIGH (planning_overlay) — confirm BAL rating and any bushfire overlay obligations for the property
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Kilburn (SA): $1,093,556 median, 2.8% yield, 31.9% 1yr growth
- Woodville North (SA): $1,130,000 median, 2.9% yield, 1.9% 1yr growth
- Blair Athol (SA): $970,000 median, 3.5% yield, 8.8% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Upper Sturt presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 1.3% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,221,300 – $1,492,700
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 4.0% + 10yr CAGR 5.4%
- +Very tight rental market (vacancy 0.8%) — upward price pressure
- +Active market (20 days avg)
- −High supply pipeline (1221 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
265
2020
252
2021
255
2022
236
2023
213
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 5156
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
1,005
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Upper Sturt SA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $345/wk median rent for Upper Sturt. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.