Noarlunga Downs SA Property Investment
Onkaparinga · 5168 · Score: 60/100 · Hold
Noarlunga Downs Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Noarlunga Downs SA Investment Brief
HOLD — 4.0% gross yield on a $700,000–$834,394 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) median.
THE MARKET
Noarlunga Downs has compounded at 3.1%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $700,000–$834,394 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 20 days (sellers have the leverage).
- Median house: $700,000–$834,394 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) | Units: $637,710
- Gross yield: 4.0% | Net yield: 2.5%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 4,031 | Owner-occupier rate: 65% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 0.8% (improving) | Rental demand: Very High
- Median weekly rent: $600/wk | Days on market: 20 (improving)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $534/night | Occupancy: 42%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$81,844/yr
- vs long-term rent: $31,200/yr (+162% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Noarlunga Centre station 1.2km away
BULL CASE
If Noarlunga Downs maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $885,500 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Noarlunga Downs pull back 10-15% from $770,000, with vacancy rising to 1.4% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Elizabeth (SA): $817,500 median, 3.1% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Gepps Cross (SA): $912,646 median, 1.9% yield, 2.1% 1yr growth
- Elizabeth Park (SA): $671,000 median, 3.9% yield, 16.7% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Noarlunga Downs offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.5%.
- Entry range: $693,000 – $847,000
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.1% + 10yr CAGR 3.8%
- +Very tight rental market (vacancy 0.8%) — upward price pressure
- +Active market (20 days avg)
- −High supply pipeline (4489 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
872
2020
1,074
2021
814
2022
839
2023
890
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 5168
Decile 2 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
5,772
Education (IEO)
3/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
2/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Noarlunga Downs SA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $600/wk median rent for Noarlunga Downs. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.