Lobethal SA Property Investment
Adelaide Hills · 5241 · Score: 62/100 · Hold
Lobethal Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Lobethal SA Investment Brief
HOLD — 4.5% gross yield on a $755,000 (pending peer validation) median.
THE MARKET
Lobethal has compounded at 4.2%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $755,000 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 20 days (sellers have the leverage).
- Median house: $755,000 (pending peer validation) | Units: $589,082
- Gross yield: 4.5% | Net yield: 3.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 4.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 2,534 | Owner-occupier rate: 80% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 0.8% (improving) | Rental demand: Very High
- Median weekly rent: $650/wk | Days on market: 20 (improving)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $651/night | Occupancy: 42%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$99,866/yr
- vs long-term rent: $33,800/yr (+195% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Adelaide Metro Train Services Franchise (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Lobethal maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $868,250 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Lobethal pull back 10-15% from $755,000, with vacancy rising to 1.4% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Bushfire risk: HIGH (planning_overlay) — confirm BAL rating and any bushfire overlay obligations for the property
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Elizabeth (SA): $817,500 median, 3.1% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Gepps Cross (SA): $912,646 median, 1.9% yield, 2.1% 1yr growth
- Elizabeth Park (SA): $671,000 median, 3.9% yield, 16.7% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Lobethal offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 5.0%.
- Entry range: $679,500 – $830,500
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.8%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 4.2% + 10yr CAGR 4.0%
- +Very tight rental market (vacancy 0.8%) — upward price pressure
- +Active market (20 days avg)
- −High supply pipeline (852 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
134
2020
169
2021
214
2022
160
2023
175
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 5241
Decile 7 of 10 — Average
Population
2,534
Education (IEO)
5/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
7/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Lobethal SA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $650/wk median rent for Lobethal. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.