Cummins SA Property Investment
Tumby Bay · 5631 · Score: 52/100 · Hold
Cummins Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Cummins SA Investment Brief
HOLD — 2.1% gross yield on a $438,044 (pending peer validation) median.
THE MARKET
Cummins has compounded at 3.2%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $438,044 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 30 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $438,044 (pending peer validation) | Units: $384,754
- Gross yield: 2.1% | Net yield: 0.6%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 981 | Owner-occupier rate: 72% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.8% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $180/wk | Days on market: 30 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $415/night | Occupancy: 42%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$63,649/yr
- vs long-term rent: $9,360/yr (+580% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Cummins maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.3%, median prices could reach $503,751 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Cummins pull back 10-15% from $438,044, with vacancy rising to 3.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Keyneton (SA): $536,907 median, 2.4% yield, 5.3% 1yr growth
- Elliston (SA): $341,559 median, 3.0% yield, 20.4% 1yr growth
- Jamestown (SA): $378,681 median, 5.7% yield, -1.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Cummins offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $394,240 – $481,848
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.2% + 10yr CAGR 5.2%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.8%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (113 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
38
2020
15
2021
16
2022
25
2023
19
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 5631
Decile 7 of 10 — Average
Population
1,063
Education (IEO)
5/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
5/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Cummins SA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $180/wk median rent for Cummins. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.