South Townsville QLD Property Investment
Townsville · 4810 · Score: 51/100 · Hold
South Townsville Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
South Townsville QLD Investment Brief
HOLD — 4.5% gross yield on a $664,992 median.
THE MARKET
South Townsville has compounded at 1.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $614,254 in 2021 is worth $664,992 today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $719,921 by 2031.
- Median house: $664,992 | Units: $534,761
- Gross yield: 4.5% | Net yield: 3.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 1.6%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 2,424 | Owner-occupier rate: 49% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $580/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $483/night | Occupancy: 44%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$77,539/yr
- vs long-term rent: $30,160/yr (+157% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Bruce Highway Upgrade Program (under_construction)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If South Townsville maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $764,741 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in South Townsville pull back 10-15% from $664,992, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Flood risk: HIGH (qld_elevation_proxy) — order a flood certificate for the specific address before commit
- - Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Westwood (QLD): $747,318 median, 2.3% yield, 23.0% 1yr growth
- Yarraman (QLD): $515,179 median, 3.7% yield, 21.1% 1yr growth
- Crawford (QLD): $501,403 median, 2.7% yield, 15.8% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
South Townsville offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 5.0%.
- Entry range: $598,493 – $731,491
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.8%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 1.6% + 10yr CAGR 2.3%
- −Population decline (-0.1%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (4124 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
516
2020
1,107
2021
826
2022
727
2023
948
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 4810
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
21,697
Education (IEO)
8/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
2/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on South Townsville QLD data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $580/wk median rent for South Townsville. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.