Mount Warren Park QLD Property Investment
Gold Coast · 4207 · Score: 64/100 · Hold
Mount Warren Park Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Mount Warren Park QLD Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.6% gross yield on a $815,000–$997,688 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) median.
THE MARKET
Mount Warren Park has compounded at 3.0%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $815,000–$997,688 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 35 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $815,000–$997,688 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) | Units: $605,751
- Gross yield: 3.6% | Net yield: 2.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 5,736 | Owner-occupier rate: 58% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.0% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $700/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $445/night | Occupancy: 44%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$71,436/yr
- vs long-term rent: $36,400/yr (+96% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Beenleigh station station 1.6km away
BULL CASE
If Mount Warren Park maintains 4%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.4%, median prices could reach $1,149,204 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Mount Warren Park pull back 10-15% from $999,308, with vacancy rising to 3.6% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Springfield Lakes (QLD): $1,070,949 median, 3.2% yield, 13.0% 1yr growth
- Ellen Grove (QLD): $878,386 median, 3.7% yield, 18.6% 1yr growth
- Waterford (QLD): $997,414 median, 3.5% yield, 6.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Mount Warren Park offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.1%.
- Entry range: $899,377 – $1,099,239
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.0% + 10yr CAGR 3.8%
- +Strong population growth (4.4%/yr) driving demand
- +Low rental vacancy (2.0%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (25451 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
4,508
2020
5,232
2021
5,649
2022
5,944
2023
4,118
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 4207
Decile 3 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
68,477
Education (IEO)
2/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Mount Warren Park QLD data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $700/wk median rent for Mount Warren Park. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.