Maryvale QLD Property Investment
Southern Downs · 4370 · Score: 46/100 · Caution
Maryvale Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Maryvale QLD Investment Brief
CAUTION — 2.0% gross yield on a $683,766 median.
THE MARKET
Maryvale has compounded at 3.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $584,129 in 2021 is worth $683,766 today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $800,398 by 2031.
- Median house: $683,766 | Units: $376,038
- Gross yield: 2.0% | Net yield: 0.5%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 19,195 | Owner-occupier rate: 67% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $260/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $567/night | Occupancy: 44%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$91,121/yr
- vs long-term rent: $13,520/yr (+574% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Bruce Highway Upgrade Program (Under Construction)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Maryvale maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $786,331 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Maryvale pull back 10-15% from $683,766, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Ellen Grove (QLD): $878,386 median, 3.7% yield, 18.6% 1yr growth
- Riverview (QLD): $732,161 median, 3.5% yield, 26.3% 1yr growth
- Silkstone (QLD): $860,909 median, 3.3% yield, 19.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Maryvale carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A cooling market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $615,389 – $752,143
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.2% + 10yr CAGR 4.3%
- −High supply pipeline (806 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
86
2020
186
2021
210
2022
139
2023
185
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 4370
Decile 2 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
19,195
Education (IEO)
2/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
3/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Maryvale QLD data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $260/wk median rent for Maryvale. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.