Kalbar QLD Property Investment
Scenic Rim · 4309 · Score: 60/100 · Hold
Kalbar Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Kalbar QLD Investment Brief
HOLD — 4.0% gross yield on a $928,162 (pending peer validation) median.
THE MARKET
Kalbar has compounded at 4.3%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $928,162 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 38 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $928,162 (pending peer validation) | Units: $781,861
- Gross yield: 4.0% | Net yield: 2.5%
- 5yr price CAGR: 4.3%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 1,246 | Owner-occupier rate: 81% | Affluence: Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.4% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $718/wk | Days on market: 38 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $576/night | Occupancy: 44%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$92,586/yr
- vs long-term rent: $37,336/yr (+148% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Rosewood station 32.4km away
BULL CASE
If Kalbar maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.7%, median prices could reach $1,067,386 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Kalbar pull back 10-15% from $928,162, with vacancy rising to 4.3% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Springfield Lakes (QLD): $1,070,949 median, 3.2% yield, 13.0% 1yr growth
- Ellen Grove (QLD): $878,386 median, 3.7% yield, 18.6% 1yr growth
- Waterford (QLD): $997,414 median, 3.5% yield, 6.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Kalbar offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a above_trend phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.5%.
- Entry range: $835,346 – $1,020,978
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 4.3% + 10yr CAGR 3.5%
- +Above-average population growth (2.3%/yr)
- +Low rental vacancy (2.4%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (1703 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
172
2020
316
2021
291
2022
315
2023
609
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 4309
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
3,366
Education (IEO)
3/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
7/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Kalbar QLD data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $718/wk median rent for Kalbar. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.