Dalby QLD Property Investment
Western Downs · 4405 · Score: 49/100 · Caution
Dalby Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Dalby QLD Investment Brief
CAUTION — 5.1% gross yield on a $560,408 median.
THE MARKET
Dalby has compounded at 1.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $533,209 in 2021 is worth $560,408 today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $588,994 by 2031.
- Median house: $560,408 | Units: $442,803
- Gross yield: 5.1% | Net yield: 3.6%
- 5yr price CAGR: 1.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 12,758 | Owner-occupier rate: 64% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $550/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $420/night | Occupancy: 44%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$67,471/yr
- vs long-term rent: $28,600/yr (+136% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Dalby station 1.7km away
BULL CASE
If Dalby maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $644,469 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Dalby pull back 10-15% from $560,408, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Russell Island (QLD): $539,944 median, 4.3% yield, 22.0% 1yr growth
- Macleay Island (QLD): $617,941 median, 4.1% yield, 26.8% 1yr growth
- Burnside (QLD): $471,000 median, 4.9% yield, 9.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Dalby carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A recovery market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $504,367 – $616,449
- Minimum gross yield to target: 5.4%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 1.0% + 10yr CAGR 2.8%
- −Population decline (-0.2%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (250 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
24
2020
70
2021
43
2022
49
2023
64
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 4405
Decile 3 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
14,360
Education (IEO)
2/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
3/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Dalby QLD data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $550/wk median rent for Dalby. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.