Cardwell QLD Property Investment

CAUTION — 6.1% gross yield on a $450,636 (pending peer validation) median.

Cardwell has compounded at 3.2%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $450,636 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions).

• Median house: $450,636 (pending peer validation) | Units: $299,667
• Gross yield: 6.1% | Net yield: 4.6%
• 5yr price CAGR: 3.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 1,320 | Owner-occupier rate: 59% | Affluence: Low

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $525/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
• Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

• Median nightly rate: $595/night | Occupancy: 44%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$95,486/yr
• vs long-term rent: $27,300/yr (+250% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Cardwell station 0.4km away

If Cardwell maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $518,231 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Cardwell pull back 10-15% from $450,636, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
• - Flood risk: MODERATE (qld_elevation_proxy) — part of the suburb sits near waterways or in a mapped flood-prone area

• Yarraman (QLD): $515,179 median, 3.7% yield, 21.1% 1yr growth
• Moranbah (QLD): $367,916 median, 9.2% yield, 6.4% 1yr growth
• Monto (QLD): $333,194 median, 5.5% yield, 14.4% 1yr growth

Cardwell carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A recovery market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.

• Entry range: $405,572 – $495,700
• Minimum gross yield to target: 6.4%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.