Leanyer NT Property Investment
Darwin · 0812 · Score: 67/100 · Buy
Leanyer Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Leanyer NT Investment Brief
BUY — 5.6% gross yield on a $664,726–$741,000 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) median.
THE MARKET
Leanyer has compounded at 1.9%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $664,726–$741,000 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 35 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $664,726–$741,000 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) | Units: $440,121
- Gross yield: 5.6% | Net yield: 4.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 1.9%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 4,597 | Owner-occupier rate: 63% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.0% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $700/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $521/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$76,075/yr
- vs long-term rent: $36,400/yr (+109% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Darwin City Deal (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Darwin station 10.4km away
BULL CASE
If Leanyer maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.4%, median prices could reach $749,800 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Leanyer pull back 10-15% from $652,000, with vacancy rising to 3.6% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Moulden (NT): $517,000 median, 6.0% yield, 20.7% 1yr growth
- Gray (NT): $524,000 median, 5.8% yield, 27.1% 1yr growth
- Dundee Beach (NT): $474,364 median, 2.2% yield, 7.9% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Leanyer presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 5.6% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current recovery phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $586,800 – $717,200
- Minimum gross yield to target: 5.9%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 1.9% + 10yr CAGR 4.3%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.0%) — constrained supply
- −Population decline (-0.2%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (549 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
175
2020
95
2021
65
2022
140
2023
74
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 0812
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
18,634
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Leanyer NT data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $700/wk median rent for Leanyer. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.