Jabiru NT Property Investment
West Arnhem · 0886 · Score: 48/100 · Caution
Jabiru Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Jabiru NT Investment Brief
CAUTION — 6.2% gross yield on a $295,000 (pending peer validation) median.
THE MARKET
Jabiru has compounded at 0.1%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $295,000 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $295,000 (pending peer validation) | Units: $88,799
- Gross yield: 6.2% | Net yield: 4.7%
- 5yr price CAGR: 0.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 0.1%/yr
- Population: 755 | Owner-occupier rate: 6% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $350/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $238/night | Occupancy: 32%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$27,637/yr
- vs long-term rent: $18,200/yr (+52% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Jabiru maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $339,250 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Jabiru pull back 10-15% from $295,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Adelaide River (NT): $232,679 median, 4.5% yield, 1.6% 1yr growth
- Daly River (NT): $301,492 median, 1.4% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Katherine East (NT): $375,000 median, 8.1% yield, 1.7% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Jabiru carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A growth market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $265,500 – $324,500
- Minimum gross yield to target: 6.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 1yr growth 0.1% (heavily discounted — volatile)
- −Population decline (-6.9%/yr) — demand headwind
- −Moderate supply pipeline (72 approvals)
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
6
2020
16
2021
13
2022
0
2023
37
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 0886
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
755
Education (IEO)
7/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
1/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Jabiru NT data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $350/wk median rent for Jabiru. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.