Freds Pass NT Property Investment
Palmerston · 0822 · Score: 53/100 · Hold
Freds Pass Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Freds Pass NT Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.5% gross yield on a N/A median.
THE MARKET
Freds Pass has compounded at 2.3%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the N/A band today. Properties are sitting on market for 35 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: N/A | Units: $0
- Gross yield: 3.5% | Net yield: 2.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 2.3%/yr | 3yr forecast: 2.0%/yr
- Population: 12 | Owner-occupier rate: 30% | Affluence: Low
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.0% (stable) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $80/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $576/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$84,060/yr
- vs long-term rent: $4,160/yr (+1921% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Darwin station 18.0km away
BULL CASE
If Freds Pass maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.4%, median prices could reach $920,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Freds Pass pull back 10-15% from $800,000, with vacancy rising to 3.6% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
THE PLAY
Freds Pass offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: N/A – N/A
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 2.3% + 10yr CAGR 5.1%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.0%) — constrained supply
- −Population decline (-0.2%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (852 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
149
2020
235
2021
131
2022
153
2023
184
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 0822
Decile 1 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
25,304
Education (IEO)
1/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
1/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Freds Pass NT data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $80/wk median rent for Freds Pass. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.