Darwin City NT Property Investment
Darwin Waterfront Precinct · 0800 · Score: 73/100 · Buy
Darwin City Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Darwin City NT Investment Brief
BUY — 6.7% gross yield on a $585,148 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
Median house price in Darwin City sits at $585,148 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) with 35 days on market and a 2.0% vacancy rate. This is a balanced market right now.
- Median house: $585,148 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $477,279
- Gross yield: 6.7% | Net yield: 5.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: -0.7%/yr | 3yr forecast: -0.7%/yr
- Population: 7,149 | Owner-occupier rate: 22% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.0% (worsening) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $750/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $657/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$95,913/yr
- vs long-term rent: $39,000/yr (+146% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Darwin City Deal (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Darwin station 16.4km away
BULL CASE
If Darwin City maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.4%, median prices could reach $672,920 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Darwin City pull back 10-15% from $585,148, with vacancy rising to 3.6% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Negative price growth suggests a softening market
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Moulden (NT): $517,000 median, 6.0% yield, 20.7% 1yr growth
- Gray (NT): $524,000 median, 5.8% yield, 27.1% 1yr growth
- Dundee Beach (NT): $474,364 median, 2.2% yield, 7.9% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Darwin City presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 6.7% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current recovery phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $526,633 – $643,663
- Minimum gross yield to target: 7.0%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 1yr growth 12.0% (heavily discounted — volatile)
- +Above-average population growth (2.0%/yr)
- +Low rental vacancy (2.0%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (270 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
175
2020
95
2021
0
2022
0
2023
0
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 0800
Decile 9 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
7,149
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
1/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Darwin City NT data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $750/wk median rent for Darwin City. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Darwin City
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.