Willow Tree NSW Property Investment

Liverpool Plains · 2339 · Score: 48/100 · Caution

Median House Price
$375K
Rental Yield
6.9%
Vacancy Rate
3.0%
Median Weekly Rent
$500/wk
Median Unit Price
$274K
Population
327
Days on Market
28 days
Annual Growth
-15.1%

Willow Tree Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market

Avg Nightly Rate
$568.81/night
Occupancy Rate
40%
Est. Annual Revenue
$83K
AI Investment Analysis

Willow Tree NSW Investment Brief

CAUTION6.9% gross yield on a $374,920 (pending peer validation) median.

THE MARKET

Willow Tree has compounded at 3.7%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $374,920 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 28 days (sellers have the leverage).

  • Median house: $374,920 (pending peer validation) | Units: $273,923
  • Gross yield: 6.9% | Net yield: 5.4%
  • 5yr price CAGR: 3.7%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
  • Population: 327 | Owner-occupier rate: 75% | Affluence: Above Average
  • Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

  • Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
  • Median weekly rent: $500/wk | Days on market: 28 (stable)
  • Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

  • Median nightly rate: $569/night | Occupancy: 40%
  • Estimated annual STR gross: ~$83,046/yr
  • vs long-term rent: $26,000/yr (+219% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

  • No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
  • Transport: Standard suburban transport access

BULL CASE

If Willow Tree maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $431,158 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Willow Tree pull back 10-15% from $374,920, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

  • Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

COMPARABLE MARKETS

  • Werris Creek (NSW): $342,492 median, 5.8% yield, 4.7% 1yr growth
  • East Kempsey (NSW): $480,884 median, 5.1% yield, 14.3% 1yr growth
  • Red Range (NSW): $420,000 median, 4.7% yield, 14.8% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Willow Tree carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A stable market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.

  • Entry range: $337,428$412,412
  • Minimum gross yield to target: 7.2%
  • Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Gentrification Index

Pre-gentrification2.5/10
Middle-tier SEIFA — moderate gentrification pressure
Active development pipeline (60 approvals) — supply attracting new residents

Growth Forecast

medium confidence
1yr Forecast
3.7%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
3.4%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
2.9%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 3.7%

Growth drivers
  • +Active market (28 days avg)
Headwinds
  • Moderate supply pipeline (60 approvals)

Suburb Metric Thresholds

4 green6 yellow6 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
3 high impact
Days on Market
28 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
500 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
3.66 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
-0.13 high impact
1yr Price Growth
-15.1 medium impact
Population Growth
1.12 high impact
Median Household Income
1312 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
3.9 medium impact
Public Transport Score
3.5 medium impact
School Zone Quality
5.4 medium impact
Distance to CBD
250.7 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
5 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
75.2 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
6.93 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
5.43 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

10

2020

14

2021

10

2022

20

2023

6

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2339

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 5 of 10 — Average

Population

718

Education (IEO)

5/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

5/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Willow Tree NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $500/wk median rent for Willow Tree. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Willow Tree PS
PrimaryGovernment
5.4/10
Quirindi HS
SecondaryGovernment
3.8/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.