Waterfall NSW Property Investment
Sutherland · 2233 · Score: 64/100 · Hold
Waterfall Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Waterfall NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.5% gross yield on a $1,349,556 median.
THE MARKET
Waterfall has compounded at 6.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $985,015 in 2021 is worth $1,349,556 today. Properties are sitting on market for 49 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,849,009 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,349,556 | Units: $977,181
- Gross yield: 3.5% | Net yield: 2.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 6.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 522 | Owner-occupier rate: 86% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.7% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $900/wk | Days on market: 49 (worsening)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $525/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$76,632/yr
- vs long-term rent: $46,800/yr (+64% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Waterfall maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.2%, median prices could reach $1,551,989 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Waterfall pull back 10-15% from $1,349,556, with vacancy rising to 3.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Canley Vale (NSW): $1,345,042 median, 2.7% yield, 30.0% 1yr growth
- Holroyd (NSW): $1,497,415 median, 2.5% yield, 4.2% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Waterfall offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,214,600 – $1,484,512
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 6.5% + 10yr CAGR 6.9%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.7%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (5667 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,113
2020
1,488
2021
1,323
2022
998
2023
745
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2233
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
29,960
Education (IEO)
8/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Waterfall NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $900/wk median rent for Waterfall. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.