Upper Main Arm NSW Property Investment
Byron · 2482 · Score: 56/100 · Hold
Upper Main Arm Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Upper Main Arm NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $1,212,400 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median with 20.7%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Upper Main Arm has compounded at 20.7%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,212,400 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 59 days (buyers have negotiating room).
- Median house: $1,212,400 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $925,032
- Gross yield: 3.6% | Net yield: 2.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 20.7%/yr | 3yr forecast: 4.7%/yr
- Population: 283 | Owner-occupier rate: 69% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $850/wk | Days on market: 59 (worsening)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $608/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$88,786/yr
- vs long-term rent: $44,200/yr (+101% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Upper Main Arm maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $1,394,260 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Upper Main Arm pull back 10-15% from $1,212,400, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Blackett (NSW): $920,447 median, 2.9% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
- Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Upper Main Arm offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a boom phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.2%.
- Entry range: $1,091,160 – $1,333,640
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 1.7% + 10yr CAGR 7.0%
- +Above-average population growth (2.1%/yr)
- −High supply pipeline (1198 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
302
2020
278
2021
208
2022
184
2023
226
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2482
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
6,967
Education (IEO)
8/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
5/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Upper Main Arm NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $850/wk median rent for Upper Main Arm. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Upper Main Arm
Get instant STR rules, granny flat feasibility, rental yield, and full investment strategy comparison for any address in Upper Main Arm.
Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.