Umina Beach NSW Property Investment
Central Coast (NSW) · 2257 · Score: 61/100 · Hold
Umina Beach Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Umina Beach NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $1,224,302 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median with 8.7%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Umina Beach has compounded at 8.7%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,224,302 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 40 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $1,224,302 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $919,237
- Gross yield: 2.8% | Net yield: 1.3%
- 5yr price CAGR: 8.7%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 17,372 | Owner-occupier rate: 66% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.7% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $650/wk | Days on market: 40 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $439/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$64,058/yr
- vs long-term rent: $33,800/yr (+90% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Woy Woy station 5.0km away
BULL CASE
If Umina Beach maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.2%, median prices could reach $1,407,947 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Umina Beach pull back 10-15% from $1,224,302, with vacancy rising to 3.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Canley Vale (NSW): $1,345,042 median, 2.7% yield, 30.0% 1yr growth
- Holroyd (NSW): $1,497,415 median, 2.5% yield, 4.2% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Umina Beach offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,101,872 – $1,346,732
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 8.7% + 10yr CAGR 9.6%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.7%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (7045 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,131
2020
1,366
2021
1,417
2022
1,906
2023
1,225
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2257
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
30,403
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Umina Beach NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $650/wk median rent for Umina Beach. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.