Tullimbar NSW Property Investment

Kiama · 2527 · Score: 62/100 · Hold

Median House Price
$1.01M
Rental Yield
4.0%
Vacancy Rate
2.6%
Median Weekly Rent
$780/wk
Median Unit Price
$783K
Population
1,840
Days on Market
35 days
Annual Growth
4.1%

Tullimbar Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market

Avg Nightly Rate
$521.69/night
Occupancy Rate
40%
Est. Annual Revenue
$76K
AI Investment Analysis

Tullimbar NSW Investment Brief

BUY4.0% gross yield on a $1,014,871 median.

THE MARKET

Median house price in Tullimbar sits at $1,014,871 with 35 days on market and a 2.6% vacancy rate. This is a balanced market right now.

  • Median house: $1,014,871 | Units: $783,274
  • Gross yield: 4.0% | Net yield: 2.5%
  • 5yr price CAGR: -22.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
  • Population: 1,840 | Owner-occupier rate: 78% | Affluence: Above Average
  • Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

  • Vacancy: 2.6% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
  • Median weekly rent: $780/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
  • Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

  • Median nightly rate: $522/night | Occupancy: 40%
  • Estimated annual STR gross: ~$76,167/yr
  • vs long-term rent: $40,560/yr (+88% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

  • No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
  • Transport: Standard suburban transport access

BULL CASE

If Tullimbar maintains 4%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.8%, median prices could reach $1,167,102 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Tullimbar pull back 10-15% from $1,014,871, with vacancy rising to 4.7% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

  • Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

COMPARABLE MARKETS

  • Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
  • Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
  • Collombatti (NSW): $800,481 median, 3.1% yield, 11.9% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Tullimbar presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and moderate rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 4.0% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current recovery phase of the market cycle.

  • Entry range: $913,384$1,116,358
  • Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
  • Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Gentrification Index

Pre-gentrification2.5/10
Middle-tier SEIFA — moderate gentrification pressure
Active development pipeline (565 approvals) — supply attracting new residents

Growth Forecast

high confidence
1yr Forecast
1.0%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
0.9%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
0.8%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 0.3% + 10yr CAGR 2.1%

Growth drivers
  • +Strong population growth (4.0%/yr) driving demand
Headwinds
  • High supply pipeline (565 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

4 green8 yellow4 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
2.6 high impact
Days on Market
35 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
780 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
0.28 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
2.11 high impact
1yr Price Growth
4.1 medium impact
Population Growth
4.04 high impact
Median Household Income
1884 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
3.5 medium impact
Public Transport Score
0 medium impact
School Zone Quality
6.2 medium impact
Distance to CBD
90.14 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
5 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
77.5 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
4 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
2.5 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

89

2020

189

2021

129

2022

91

2023

67

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2527

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 6 of 10 — Average

Population

26,072

Education (IEO)

3/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

8/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Tullimbar NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $780/wk median rent for Tullimbar. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Tullimbar PS
PrimaryGovernment
6.2/10
Albion Park HS
SecondaryGovernment
5.4/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.