The Risk NSW Property Investment
Tweed · 2474 · Score: 46/100 · Caution
The Risk Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
The Risk NSW Investment Brief
CAUTION — 2.7% gross yield on a $932,933 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
The Risk has compounded at 4.2%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $932,933 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $932,933 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $254,018
- Gross yield: 2.7% | Net yield: 1.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: 4.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 3.8%/yr
- Population: 31 | Owner-occupier rate: 74% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $480/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Kyogle Station station 19.0km away
BULL CASE
If The Risk maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $1,072,873 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in The Risk pull back 10-15% from $932,933, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
- Hat Head (NSW): $678,789 median, 3.6% yield, 37.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
The Risk carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A cooling market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $839,640 – $1,026,226
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 4.2% + 10yr CAGR 5.0%
- −High supply pipeline (1502 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
211
2020
339
2021
381
2022
281
2023
290
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2474
Decile 2 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
6,492
Education (IEO)
4/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
2/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on The Risk NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $480/wk median rent for The Risk. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in The Risk
Get instant STR rules, granny flat feasibility, rental yield, and full investment strategy comparison for any address in The Risk.
Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.