Terrigal NSW Property Investment
Central Coast (NSW) · 2260 · Score: 69/100 · Buy
Terrigal Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Terrigal NSW Investment Brief
BUY — $1,578,241 median with 10.0%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Terrigal has compounded at 10.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $979,963 in 2021 is worth $1,578,241 today. Properties are sitting on market for 84 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,541,773 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,578,241 | Units: $1,318,539
- Gross yield: 3.0% | Net yield: 1.5%
- 5yr price CAGR: 10.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 12,730 | Owner-occupier rate: 76% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $898/wk | Days on market: 84 (worsening)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $579/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$84,479/yr
- vs long-term rent: $46,696/yr (+81% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Gosford station 9.9km away
BULL CASE
If Terrigal maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,814,977 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Terrigal pull back 10-15% from $1,578,241, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Canley Vale (NSW): $1,345,042 median, 2.7% yield, 30.0% 1yr growth
- Holroyd (NSW): $1,497,415 median, 2.5% yield, 4.2% 1yr growth
- Berala (NSW): $1,695,375 median, 2.3% yield, 5.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Terrigal presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.0% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current above_trend phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,420,417 – $1,736,065
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 10.0% + 10yr CAGR 8.6%
- +Above-average population growth (2.0%/yr)
- +Low rental vacancy (2.2%) — constrained supply
- −Slow market (84 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (7045 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,131
2020
1,366
2021
1,417
2022
1,906
2023
1,225
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2260
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
25,845
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Terrigal NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $898/wk median rent for Terrigal. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.