Tarago NSW Property Investment
Wingecarribee · 2580 · Score: 49/100 · Caution
Tarago Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Tarago NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.2% gross yield on a $819,310 median.
THE MARKET
Tarago has compounded at 5.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $623,920 in 2021 is worth $819,310 today. Properties are sitting on market for 38 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,075,890 by 2031.
- Median house: $819,310 | Units: $65,261
- Gross yield: 3.2% | Net yield: 1.7%
- 5yr price CAGR: 5.6%/yr | 3yr forecast: 2.2%/yr
- Population: 510 | Owner-occupier rate: 68% | Affluence: Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $500/wk | Days on market: 38 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $430/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$62,844/yr
- vs long-term rent: $26,000/yr (+142% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Tarago station 2.4km away
BULL CASE
If Tarago maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $942,206 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Tarago pull back 10-15% from $819,310, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
- Hat Head (NSW): $678,789 median, 3.6% yield, 37.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Tarago offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a above_trend phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $737,379 – $901,241
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 11.1% + 10yr CAGR 3.4%
- +Above-average population growth (1.6%/yr)
- −High supply pipeline (1697 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
240
2020
429
2021
439
2022
298
2023
291
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2580
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
31,629
Education (IEO)
4/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Tarago NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $500/wk median rent for Tarago. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Tarago
Get instant STR rules, granny flat feasibility, rental yield, and full investment strategy comparison for any address in Tarago.
Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.