Scarborough NSW Property Investment

Scarborough has compounded at 9.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,351,059 in 2021 is worth $2,078,772 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $3,198,448 by 2031.

• Median house: $2,078,772 | Units: $1,757,121
• Gross yield: 1.8% | Net yield: 0.2%
• 5yr price CAGR: 9.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 325 | Owner-occupier rate: 79% | Affluence: Very High

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 0.8% (improving) | Rental demand: Very High
• Median weekly rent: $700/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
• Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

• Median nightly rate: $812/night | Occupancy: 40%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$118,607/yr
• vs long-term rent: $36,400/yr (+226% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Standard suburban transport access

If Scarborough maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $2,390,588 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Scarborough pull back 10-15% from $2,078,772, with vacancy rising to 1.4% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
• - Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

• Pinkett (NSW): $2,650,000 median, 0.8% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
• Barrack Point (NSW): $1,711,063 median, 2.5% yield, 1.8% 1yr growth
• Long Point (NSW): $2,700,000 median, 1.2% yield, 12.5% 1yr growth

Scarborough presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 1.8% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current recovery phase of the market cycle.

• Entry range: $1,870,895 – $2,286,649
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.